Summer has been off to a soggy start, but that’s set to change this week with Environment Canada forecasting temperatures as high as 38°C in the Nelson area by Sunday.
However, the high temperatures won’t qualify as the region’s first heat wave.
According to Environment Canada meteorologist Chris Doyle, there are specific criteria used to classify a heat wave, including consistently warm temperatures even at night, which won’t be the case in this area.
“In the Nelson area, you’re going to get those high temperatures during the day, but there’s going to be a pretty decent cool-off at night, so it may not meet the criteria for a heat warning, just because it’s going to be just cool enough at night to prevent that criteria from being met.”
It’s still shaping up to be a hot, dry summer despite June’s rain, with Sunday’s forecast of 38°C representing an above-average temperature for this time of year.
“The average this time of year is more like 28°C, so looking at a forecast of 38°C means you’re going to have daytime maximum temperatures 10 degrees above average,” said Doyle.
He said the wind patterns in the northern hemisphere are showing that there will be a long-period ridge over much of the southern BC area for July and August, meaning hot and dry conditions are expected to be the theme for the next few months.
However, the region’s short-term drought indicators, which are used to measure ground saturation, appear to be in good shape compared to previous years, although he said it could still get dry again very quickly.
“With ridges and dry weather and warmer than average weather in the forecast, things could start to get pretty dry fairly quickly, and if it stays like this into the middle of July, it will be quite dry again.”
Environment Canada’s full seven-day forecast can be found here.
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